Boom or Bust
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Two players can have the same season-long average and be completely different draft picks. A WR who scores 12, 13, 14, 13 every week is a safe floor. A WR who scores 5, 4, 6, 48 is a high-variance gamble. Same average, different roles on your roster. This report shows you the volatility profile behind every player's number so you can match player types to the league format you're drafting for.
Pick a position (QB, RB, WR, or TE) and a season range, and the page generates five views of the data: a stacked bar of each player's boom/avg/bust mix, a hot-streaks grid of recent game sequences, a consistency leaderboard (average FP minus standard deviation), a ceiling-vs-floor scatter, and a sortable details table. Boom and bust thresholds default to position-aware values but you can drag the sliders to redefine them. Filter by home/away/international, week range, or minimum games.
Pair it with rankings to see where ceiling guys sit relative to floor players in consensus order, or stats - 3 year for the underlying production context.
Hot Streaks
Consistency Ranking
| # | Player | Team | GP | Avg FP | Std Dev | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake Maye | NWE | 17 | 21.5 | 5.3 | 16.2 |
| 2 | Matthew Stafford | LAR | 17 | 22.0 | 7.0 | 15.0 |
| 3 | Kyler Murray | ARI | 5 | 16.4 | 1.7 | 14.7 |
| 4 | Patrick Mahomes | KAN | 14 | 21.6 | 7.4 | 14.2 |
| 5 | Josh Allen | BUF | 16 | 24.2 | 10.7 | 13.5 |
| 6 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | 16 | 19.5 | 7.1 | 12.4 |
| 7 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 17 | 20.9 | 8.8 | 12.1 |
| 8 | Daniel Jones | IND | 13 | 18.7 | 6.7 | 12.0 |
| 9 | Jared Goff | DET | 17 | 19.3 | 7.5 | 11.8 |
| 10 | Brock Purdy | SFO | 9 | 21.7 | 10.1 | 11.6 |
| 11 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 17 | 20.2 | 8.6 | 11.6 |
| 12 | Caleb Williams | CHI | 17 | 19.4 | 7.8 | 11.6 |
| 13 | Justin Herbert | LAC | 16 | 19.6 | 8.1 | 11.5 |
| 14 | Jayden Daniels | WAS | 7 | 17.0 | 5.9 | 11.2 |
| 15 | Bo Nix | DEN | 17 | 19.4 | 8.3 | 11.1 |
| 16 | Baker Mayfield | TAM | 17 | 17.2 | 6.2 | 11.0 |
| 17 | Carson Wentz | MIN | 5 | 16.3 | 5.6 | 10.6 |
| 18 | Jacoby Brissett | ARI | 14 | 18.0 | 8.2 | 9.8 |
| 19 | Joe Burrow | CIN | 8 | 18.2 | 8.7 | 9.4 |
| 20 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | 14 | 15.7 | 6.4 | 9.3 |
Player Details
| # | Player | Team | GP | Boom% | Avg% | Bust% | Avg FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patrick Mahomes | KAN | 14 | 42.9% | 42.9% | 14.3% | 21.6 |
| 2 | Matthew Stafford | LAR | 17 | 41.2% | 52.9% | 5.9% | 22.0 |
| 3 | Brock Purdy | SFO | 9 | 33.3% | 44.4% | 22.2% | 21.7 |
| 4 | Justin Herbert | LAC | 16 | 31.3% | 56.3% | 12.5% | 19.6 |
| 5 | Drake Maye | NWE | 17 | 29.4% | 70.6% | 0.0% | 21.5 |
| 6 | Josh Allen | BUF | 16 | 25.0% | 56.3% | 18.8% | 24.2 |
| 7 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 17 | 23.5% | 52.9% | 23.5% | 20.2 |
| 8 | Jared Goff | DET | 17 | 23.5% | 64.7% | 11.8% | 19.3 |
| 9 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | 13 | 23.1% | 46.2% | 30.8% | 17.3 |
| 10 | Justin Fields | NYJ | 9 | 22.2% | 33.3% | 44.4% | 16.3 |
| 11 | Jaxson Dart | NYG | 14 | 21.4% | 57.1% | 21.4% | 17.8 |
| 12 | Carson Wentz | MIN | 5 | 20.0% | 60.0% | 20.0% | 16.3 |
| 13 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | 16 | 18.8% | 62.5% | 18.8% | 19.5 |
| 14 | Bo Nix | DEN | 17 | 17.6% | 64.7% | 17.6% | 19.4 |
| 15 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 17 | 17.6% | 58.8% | 23.5% | 20.9 |
| 16 | Davis Mills | HOU | 6 | 16.7% | 33.3% | 50.0% | 11.6 |
| 17 | Russell Wilson | NYG | 6 | 16.7% | 0.0% | 83.3% | 9.3 |
| 18 | Joe Flacco | CIN | 13 | 15.4% | 23.1% | 61.5% | 12.7 |
| 19 | Geno Smith | LVR | 15 | 13.3% | 40.0% | 46.7% | 13.0 |
| 20 | Jordan Love | GNB | 15 | 13.3% | 60.0% | 26.7% | 16.6 |
| 21 | Bryce Young | CAR | 16 | 12.5% | 37.5% | 50.0% | 14.9 |
| 22 | Joe Burrow | CIN | 8 | 12.5% | 50.0% | 37.5% | 18.2 |
| 23 | Shedeur Sanders | CLE | 8 | 12.5% | 12.5% | 75.0% | 12.4 |
| 24 | Caleb Williams | CHI | 17 | 11.8% | 70.6% | 17.6% | 19.4 |
| 25 | Sam Darnold | SEA | 17 | 11.8% | 41.2% | 47.1% | 15.4 |
| 26 | Kirk Cousins | ATL | 10 | 10.0% | 30.0% | 60.0% | 11.3 |
| 27 | Mac Jones | SFO | 11 | 9.1% | 54.5% | 36.4% | 13.4 |
| 28 | Daniel Jones | IND | 13 | 7.7% | 84.6% | 7.7% | 18.7 |
| 29 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | 14 | 7.1% | 64.3% | 28.6% | 15.7 |
| 30 | Jacoby Brissett | ARI | 14 | 7.1% | 71.4% | 21.4% | 18.0 |
| 31 | Baker Mayfield | TAM | 17 | 5.9% | 82.4% | 11.8% | 17.2 |
| 32 | Aaron Rodgers | PIT | 16 | 0.0% | 75.0% | 25.0% | 14.7 |
| 33 | Brady Cook | NYJ | 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 7.3 |
| 34 | Cam Ward | TEN | 17 | 0.0% | 52.9% | 47.1% | 11.8 |
| 35 | Dillon Gabriel | CLE | 10 | 0.0% | 30.0% | 70.0% | 7.2 |
| 36 | J.J. McCarthy | MIN | 10 | 0.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 13.9 |
| 37 | Jake Browning | CIN | 5 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 60.0% | 11.3 |
| 38 | Jayden Daniels | WAS | 7 | 0.0% | 85.7% | 14.3% | 17.0 |
| 39 | Kenny Pickett | LVR | 6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 1.8 |
| 40 | Kyler Murray | ARI | 5 | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 16.4 |
| 41 | Marcus Mariota | WAS | 10 | 0.0% | 70.0% | 30.0% | 13.6 |
| 42 | Mason Rudolph | PIT | 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.6 |
| 43 | Max Brosmer | MIN | 7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 1.3 |
| 44 | Michael Penix | ATL | 9 | 0.0% | 55.6% | 44.4% | 14.3 |
| 45 | Riley Leonard | IND | 5 | 0.0% | 20.0% | 80.0% | 6.8 |
| 46 | Spencer Rattler | NOR | 9 | 0.0% | 55.6% | 44.4% | 11.8 |
| 47 | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | 14 | 0.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 12.8 |
| 48 | Tyler Huntley | BAL | 5 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 60.0% | 8.0 |
| 49 | Tyler Shough | NOR | 11 | 0.0% | 63.6% | 36.4% | 15.6 |
| 50 | Tyrod Taylor | NYJ | 6 | 0.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 10.9 |
How do I find boom-or-bust fantasy players for draft prep?
Boom-or-bust draft picks are sorted by how often a player posts ceiling games vs bust games, with position-aware thresholds you can override with a slider. League Station's 2026 draft-prep view shows stacked boom/avg/bust bars, hot-streak grids of recent game sequences, a ceiling-vs-floor scatter, and a consistency leaderboard, so high-variance gambles separate cleanly from safe floors.
Want the raw data behind these reports?
Get the full dataset behind our rankings in Excel format.