Heartbreakers
Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.
Top 10 of the 2025 season
NYJ peaked at 84% win probability, lost 34–32 to PIT.PIT bottomed out at 16%.
SEA peaked at 76% win probability, lost 17–13 to SFO.SFO bottomed out at 24%.
NWE peaked at 65% win probability, lost 20–13 to LVR.LVR bottomed out at 35%.
DAL peaked at 62% win probability, lost 24–20 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 38%.
TEN peaked at 61% win probability, lost 20–12 to DEN.DEN bottomed out at 39%.
Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).
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