Boom or Bust
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Every week your lineup decisions come down to two questions: who has a real shot at a 30-point game, and who's about to lay an egg? Season-long averages don't answer either one. This report does, by sorting every player at a position by how often they boom, how often they bust, and how consistent they are in between, so you can identify the ceiling plays for tournament lineups and the floor plays for cash games before kickoff.
Pick a position (QB, RB, WR, or TE), choose a season range from a single year up to a full career, and the page shows five views of the same data: a stacked bar of each player's boom/avg/bust mix, a hot-streaks grid of their actual recent game sequence, a consistency leaderboard scored by average fantasy points minus standard deviation, a ceiling-vs-floor scatter plot, and a sortable details table. The boom and bust thresholds default to position-aware values (26+ for a QB boom, 17+ for a WR, etc.) but you can drag the sliders to define them yourself.
If a player's boom potential catches your eye, head to head lets you compare two players game by game. New to consistency stats? The NFL stats guide explains what boom and bust rates actually measure.
Hot Streaks
Consistency Ranking
| # | Player | Team | GP | Avg FP | Std Dev | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake Maye | NWE | 17 | 21.5 | 5.3 | 16.2 |
| 2 | Matthew Stafford | LAR | 17 | 22.0 | 7.0 | 15.0 |
| 3 | Kyler Murray | ARI | 5 | 16.4 | 1.7 | 14.7 |
| 4 | Patrick Mahomes | KAN | 14 | 21.6 | 7.4 | 14.2 |
| 5 | Josh Allen | BUF | 16 | 24.2 | 10.7 | 13.5 |
| 6 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | 16 | 19.5 | 7.1 | 12.4 |
| 7 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 17 | 20.9 | 8.8 | 12.1 |
| 8 | Daniel Jones | IND | 13 | 18.7 | 6.7 | 12.0 |
| 9 | Jared Goff | DET | 17 | 19.3 | 7.5 | 11.8 |
| 10 | Brock Purdy | SFO | 9 | 21.7 | 10.1 | 11.6 |
| 11 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 17 | 20.2 | 8.6 | 11.6 |
| 12 | Caleb Williams | CHI | 17 | 19.4 | 7.8 | 11.6 |
| 13 | Justin Herbert | LAC | 16 | 19.6 | 8.1 | 11.5 |
| 14 | Jayden Daniels | WAS | 7 | 17.0 | 5.9 | 11.2 |
| 15 | Bo Nix | DEN | 17 | 19.4 | 8.3 | 11.1 |
| 16 | Baker Mayfield | TAM | 17 | 17.2 | 6.2 | 11.0 |
| 17 | Carson Wentz | MIN | 5 | 16.3 | 5.6 | 10.6 |
| 18 | Jacoby Brissett | ARI | 14 | 18.0 | 8.2 | 9.8 |
| 19 | Joe Burrow | CIN | 8 | 18.2 | 8.7 | 9.4 |
| 20 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | 14 | 15.7 | 6.4 | 9.3 |
Player Details
| # | Player | Team | GP | Boom% | Avg% | Bust% | Avg FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patrick Mahomes | KAN | 14 | 42.9% | 42.9% | 14.3% | 21.6 |
| 2 | Matthew Stafford | LAR | 17 | 41.2% | 52.9% | 5.9% | 22.0 |
| 3 | Brock Purdy | SFO | 9 | 33.3% | 44.4% | 22.2% | 21.7 |
| 4 | Justin Herbert | LAC | 16 | 31.3% | 56.3% | 12.5% | 19.6 |
| 5 | Drake Maye | NWE | 17 | 29.4% | 70.6% | 0.0% | 21.5 |
| 6 | Josh Allen | BUF | 16 | 25.0% | 56.3% | 18.8% | 24.2 |
| 7 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 17 | 23.5% | 52.9% | 23.5% | 20.2 |
| 8 | Jared Goff | DET | 17 | 23.5% | 64.7% | 11.8% | 19.3 |
| 9 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | 13 | 23.1% | 46.2% | 30.8% | 17.3 |
| 10 | Justin Fields | NYJ | 9 | 22.2% | 33.3% | 44.4% | 16.3 |
| 11 | Jaxson Dart | NYG | 14 | 21.4% | 57.1% | 21.4% | 17.8 |
| 12 | Carson Wentz | MIN | 5 | 20.0% | 60.0% | 20.0% | 16.3 |
| 13 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | 16 | 18.8% | 62.5% | 18.8% | 19.5 |
| 14 | Bo Nix | DEN | 17 | 17.6% | 64.7% | 17.6% | 19.4 |
| 15 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 17 | 17.6% | 58.8% | 23.5% | 20.9 |
| 16 | Davis Mills | HOU | 6 | 16.7% | 33.3% | 50.0% | 11.6 |
| 17 | Russell Wilson | NYG | 6 | 16.7% | 0.0% | 83.3% | 9.3 |
| 18 | Joe Flacco | CIN | 13 | 15.4% | 23.1% | 61.5% | 12.7 |
| 19 | Geno Smith | LVR | 15 | 13.3% | 40.0% | 46.7% | 13.0 |
| 20 | Jordan Love | GNB | 15 | 13.3% | 60.0% | 26.7% | 16.6 |
| 21 | Bryce Young | CAR | 16 | 12.5% | 37.5% | 50.0% | 14.9 |
| 22 | Joe Burrow | CIN | 8 | 12.5% | 50.0% | 37.5% | 18.2 |
| 23 | Shedeur Sanders | CLE | 8 | 12.5% | 12.5% | 75.0% | 12.4 |
| 24 | Caleb Williams | CHI | 17 | 11.8% | 70.6% | 17.6% | 19.4 |
| 25 | Sam Darnold | SEA | 17 | 11.8% | 41.2% | 47.1% | 15.4 |
| 26 | Kirk Cousins | ATL | 10 | 10.0% | 30.0% | 60.0% | 11.3 |
| 27 | Mac Jones | SFO | 11 | 9.1% | 54.5% | 36.4% | 13.4 |
| 28 | Daniel Jones | IND | 13 | 7.7% | 84.6% | 7.7% | 18.7 |
| 29 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | 14 | 7.1% | 64.3% | 28.6% | 15.7 |
| 30 | Jacoby Brissett | ARI | 14 | 7.1% | 71.4% | 21.4% | 18.0 |
| 31 | Baker Mayfield | TAM | 17 | 5.9% | 82.4% | 11.8% | 17.2 |
| 32 | Aaron Rodgers | PIT | 16 | 0.0% | 75.0% | 25.0% | 14.7 |
| 33 | Brady Cook | NYJ | 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 7.3 |
| 34 | Cam Ward | TEN | 17 | 0.0% | 52.9% | 47.1% | 11.8 |
| 35 | Dillon Gabriel | CLE | 10 | 0.0% | 30.0% | 70.0% | 7.2 |
| 36 | J.J. McCarthy | MIN | 10 | 0.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 13.9 |
| 37 | Jake Browning | CIN | 5 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 60.0% | 11.3 |
| 38 | Jayden Daniels | WAS | 7 | 0.0% | 85.7% | 14.3% | 17.0 |
| 39 | Kenny Pickett | LVR | 6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 1.8 |
| 40 | Kyler Murray | ARI | 5 | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 16.4 |
| 41 | Marcus Mariota | WAS | 10 | 0.0% | 70.0% | 30.0% | 13.6 |
| 42 | Mason Rudolph | PIT | 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.6 |
| 43 | Max Brosmer | MIN | 7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 1.3 |
| 44 | Michael Penix | ATL | 9 | 0.0% | 55.6% | 44.4% | 14.3 |
| 45 | Riley Leonard | IND | 5 | 0.0% | 20.0% | 80.0% | 6.8 |
| 46 | Spencer Rattler | NOR | 9 | 0.0% | 55.6% | 44.4% | 11.8 |
| 47 | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | 14 | 0.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 12.8 |
| 48 | Tyler Huntley | BAL | 5 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 60.0% | 8.0 |
| 49 | Tyler Shough | NOR | 11 | 0.0% | 63.6% | 36.4% | 15.6 |
| 50 | Tyrod Taylor | NYJ | 6 | 0.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 10.9 |
What is boom-or-bust analysis in fantasy football?
Boom-or-bust analysis sorts every QB, RB, WR, or TE by how often they post ceiling games (booms), how often they bust, and how consistent they are in between. League Station plots position-aware boom and bust rates across the full game-log database with adjustable thresholds, so you can pick ceiling plays for DFS tournaments and floor plays for cash games.
Want the raw data behind these reports?
25 seasons of NFL data in Excel format, updated weekly.