Boom or Bust
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Every week your lineup decisions come down to two questions: who has a real shot at a 30-point game, and who's about to lay an egg? Season-long averages don't answer either one. This report does, by sorting every player at a position by how often they boom, how often they bust, and how consistent they are in between, so you can identify the ceiling plays for tournament lineups and the floor plays for cash games before kickoff.
Pick a position (QB, RB, WR, or TE), choose a season range from a single year up to a full career, and the page shows five views of the same data: a stacked bar of each player's boom/avg/bust mix, a hot-streaks grid of their actual recent game sequence, a consistency leaderboard scored by average fantasy points minus standard deviation, a ceiling-vs-floor scatter plot, and a sortable details table. The boom and bust thresholds default to position-aware values (26+ for a QB boom, 17+ for a WR, etc.) but you can drag the sliders to define them yourself.
If a player's boom potential catches your eye, head to head lets you compare two players game by game. New to consistency stats? The NFL stats guide explains what boom and bust rates actually measure.
Hot Streaks
Consistency Ranking
| # | Player | Team | GP | Avg FP | Std Dev | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen | BUF | 7 | 28.6 | 8.8 | 19.8 |
| 2 | Kirk Cousins | LVR | 8 | 21.3 | 4.6 | 16.8 |
| 3 | Joe Burrow | CIN | 7 | 26.1 | 9.4 | 16.7 |
| 4 | Jordan Love | GNB | 8 | 20.6 | 4.7 | 15.9 |
| 5 | Brock Purdy | SFO | 7 | 21.4 | 5.9 | 15.6 |
| 6 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | 7 | 20.1 | 4.9 | 15.2 |
| 7 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 8 | 19.9 | 4.8 | 15.1 |
| 8 | Jared Goff | DET | 7 | 21.9 | 7.0 | 14.8 |
| 9 | Jayden Daniels | WAS | 5 | 21.3 | 7.7 | 13.6 |
| 10 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 7 | 20.7 | 7.7 | 13.0 |
| 11 | Deshaun Watson | CLE | 8 | 16.2 | 3.9 | 12.3 |
| 12 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | 5 | 16.6 | 4.5 | 12.1 |
| 13 | Bryce Young | CAR | 7 | 19.8 | 8.6 | 11.2 |
| 14 | Patrick Mahomes | KAN | 7 | 19.4 | 8.3 | 11.1 |
| 15 | Tyler Shough | NOR | 7 | 19.7 | 8.9 | 10.8 |
| 16 | Drake Maye | NWE | 8 | 22.1 | 11.4 | 10.8 |
| 17 | Matthew Stafford | LAR | 8 | 18.9 | 8.9 | 10.1 |
| 18 | Justin Herbert | LAC | 7 | 11.8 | 1.8 | 9.9 |
| 19 | Geno Smith | NYJ | 8 | 16.4 | 7.2 | 9.2 |
| 20 | Malik Willis | MIA | 7 | 15.6 | 6.8 | 8.8 |
Player Details
| # | Player | Team | GP | Boom% | Avg% | Bust% | Avg FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen | BUF | 7 | 57.1% | 42.9% | 0.0% | 28.6 |
| 2 | Joe Burrow | CIN | 7 | 42.9% | 57.1% | 0.0% | 26.1 |
| 3 | Tyler Shough | NOR | 7 | 42.9% | 42.9% | 14.3% | 19.7 |
| 4 | Drake Maye | NWE | 8 | 37.5% | 37.5% | 25.0% | 22.1 |
| 5 | Brock Purdy | SFO | 7 | 28.6% | 71.4% | 0.0% | 21.4 |
| 6 | Jared Goff | DET | 7 | 28.6% | 57.1% | 14.3% | 21.9 |
| 7 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 7 | 28.6% | 57.1% | 14.3% | 20.7 |
| 8 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | 7 | 28.6% | 57.1% | 14.3% | 20.1 |
| 9 | Patrick Mahomes | KAN | 7 | 28.6% | 42.9% | 28.6% | 19.4 |
| 10 | Kirk Cousins | LVR | 8 | 25.0% | 75.0% | 0.0% | 21.3 |
| 11 | Matthew Stafford | LAR | 8 | 25.0% | 50.0% | 25.0% | 18.9 |
| 12 | Jayden Daniels | WAS | 5 | 20.0% | 80.0% | 0.0% | 21.3 |
| 13 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | 5 | 20.0% | 60.0% | 20.0% | 16.8 |
| 14 | Sam Darnold | SEA | 6 | 16.7% | 50.0% | 33.3% | 14.3 |
| 15 | Jameis Winston | NYG | 6 | 16.7% | 16.7% | 66.7% | 12.4 |
| 16 | Malik Willis | MIA | 7 | 14.3% | 71.4% | 14.3% | 15.6 |
| 17 | Bryce Young | CAR | 7 | 14.3% | 57.1% | 28.6% | 19.8 |
| 18 | Jordan Love | GNB | 8 | 12.5% | 87.5% | 0.0% | 20.6 |
| 19 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 8 | 12.5% | 87.5% | 0.0% | 19.9 |
| 20 | Geno Smith | NYJ | 8 | 12.5% | 50.0% | 37.5% | 16.4 |
| 21 | Bo Nix | DEN | 8 | 12.5% | 50.0% | 37.5% | 15.0 |
| 22 | Jacoby Brissett | ARI | 8 | 12.5% | 50.0% | 37.5% | 14.8 |
| 23 | Cam Ward | TEN | 8 | 12.5% | 25.0% | 62.5% | 13.7 |
| 24 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | 5 | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 16.6 |
| 25 | Deshaun Watson | CLE | 8 | 0.0% | 87.5% | 12.5% | 16.2 |
| 26 | Michael Penix | ATL | 6 | 0.0% | 83.3% | 16.7% | 14.8 |
| 27 | Aaron Rodgers | PIT | 8 | 0.0% | 75.0% | 25.0% | 15.5 |
| 28 | Tyler Huntley | BAL | 5 | 0.0% | 60.0% | 40.0% | 11.3 |
| 29 | Baker Mayfield | TAM | 5 | 0.0% | 60.0% | 40.0% | 9.6 |
| 30 | Jalon Daniels | TAM | 5 | 0.0% | 60.0% | 40.0% | 8.0 |
| 31 | Justin Herbert | LAC | 7 | 0.0% | 57.1% | 42.9% | 11.8 |
| 32 | Kyler Murray | MIN | 6 | 0.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 12.8 |
| 33 | Daniel Jones | IND | 8 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 75.0% | 10.4 |
What is boom-or-bust analysis in fantasy football?
Boom-or-bust analysis sorts every QB, RB, WR, or TE by how often they post ceiling games (booms), how often they bust, and how consistent they are in between. League Station plots position-aware boom and bust rates across the full game-log database with adjustable thresholds, so you can pick ceiling plays for DFS tournaments and floor plays for cash games.
Want the raw data behind these reports?
25 seasons of NFL data in Excel format, updated weekly.