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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 11 of 2025

1
KAN19
at
DEN22

KAN peaked at 71% win probability, lost 22–19 to DEN.DEN bottomed out at 29%.

71%
Peak WP
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2
CHI19
at
MIN17

MIN peaked at 66% win probability, lost 19–17 to CHI.CHI bottomed out at 34%.

66%
Peak WP
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3
NYJ14
at
NWE27

NYJ peaked at 62% win probability, lost 27–14 to NWE.NWE bottomed out at 38%.

62%
Peak WP
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4
LAC6
at
JAX35

LAC peaked at 55% win probability, lost 35–6 to JAX.JAX bottomed out at 45%.

55%
Peak WP
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5
DET9
at
PHI16

DET peaked at 52% win probability, lost 16–9 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 48%.

52%
Peak WP
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6
CIN12
at
PIT34

CIN peaked at 51% win probability, lost 34–12 to PIT.PIT bottomed out at 49%.

51%
Peak WP
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7
SEA19
at
LAR21

SEA peaked at 49% win probability, lost 21–19 to LAR.LAR bottomed out at 51%.

49%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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