NFL Confidence Pool Picks, Week 1
All sixteen games ranked by point value, 16 points on the pick we are most confident in down to 1 on the least, with the spread and kickoff behind each one.
| Pts | Pick | Matchup | Spread | Kickoff | Win % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | LACLos Angeles Chargers | vs ARIArizona Cardinals | -9.5 | Sun 4:25p | 80.3% | - |
| 15 | JAXJacksonville Jaguars | vs CLECleveland Browns | -8.5 | Sun 1:00p | 77.7% | - |
| 14 | DETDetroit Lions | vs NONew Orleans Saints | -7.0 | Sun 1:00p | 73.5% | - |
| 13 | PHIPhiladelphia Eagles | vs WASWashington Commandersdiv | -4.5 | Sun 4:25p | 66.3% | - |
| 12 | CINCincinnati Bengals | vs TBTampa Bay Buccaneers | -3.5 | Sun 1:00p | 64.8% | - |
| 11 | LALos Angeles Rams | vs SFSan Francisco 49ersdiv | -3.5 | Thu 8:35p | 64.2% | - |
| 10 | PITPittsburgh Steelers | vs ATLAtlanta Falcons | -3.5 | Sun 1:00p | 61.9% | - |
| 9 | LVLas Vegas Raiders | vs MIAMiami Dolphins | -3.0 | Sun 4:25p | 61.9% | - |
| 8 | SEASeattle Seahawks | vs NENew England Patriots | -3.0 | Wed 8:20p | 61.7% | W13-10 |
| 7 | BALBaltimore Ravens | at INDIndianapolis Colts | -3.5 | Sun 1:00p | 61.5% | - |
| 6 | CHIChicago Bears | at CARCarolina Panthers | -3.0 | Sun 1:00p | 59.6% | - |
| 5 | DALDallas Cowboys | at NYGNew York Giantsdiv | -3.0 | Sun 8:20p | 59.1% | - |
| 4 | KCKansas City Chiefs | vs DENDenver Broncosdiv | -2.5 | Mon 8:15p | 56.9% | - |
| 3 | TENTennessee Titans | vs NYJNew York Jets | -1.5 | Sun 1:00p | 53.0% | - |
| 2 | MINMinnesota Vikings | vs GBGreen Bay Packersdiv | -1.5 | Sun 4:25p | 52.3% | - |
| 1 | BUFBuffalo Bills | at HOUHouston Texans | -1.0 | Sun 1:00p | 51.9% | - |
8 of 8 points from the 1 games played so far.
Standard confidence scoring: the point value if the pick wins, nothing if it loses or ties. The win percentage is the market's own implied probability, taken from consensus moneylines across sportsbooks with the vig removed, and is what the ordering is built on, from the "baseline" sheet. Spreads are the median across books, snapped to the half point, from the pick's own perspective. The sheet resyncs every fifteen minutes while the model refines it, then freezes permanently at the week's first kickoff. Past weeks are shown exactly as they stood at lock, never restated.
Planning a survivor entry too? The survivor pool grid shows every team's opponent and spread for all 18 weeks.
Confidence pool questions
How does an NFL confidence pool work?
You pick a winner in every game on the slate, then rank those picks by how sure you are. With sixteen games you assign 16 points to your most confident pick down to 1 point for your least, using each value exactly once. You collect the point value when a pick wins and nothing when it loses, so the ranking matters as much as the picks.
How are confidence pool points scored?
Standard scoring awards the assigned point value on a win and zero on a loss or a tie. A sixteen-game slate puts 136 points on the board each week. Because a wrong 16-point pick costs sixteen times what a wrong 1-point pick does, ordering the board well is usually worth more than any single pick.
Where do these 2026 confidence pool picks come from?
Every game is ranked by the market’s own implied win probability, taken from consensus moneylines across sportsbooks with the vig removed. The most likely winner gets the most points and the closest game gets the fewest. It is not a hand-made list and not a separate prediction model.
When do the picks lock?
The sheet resyncs every fifteen minutes while lines move, then freezes permanently at the week 1 first kickoff. After that it cannot change, which is enforced in the database rather than in the site, so a past week always shows exactly what was published before those games were played.
Should your 16-point pick always be the biggest favorite?
Under standard scoring, yes: expected points are the point value multiplied by the chance the pick wins, so the safest game should carry the most points. Getting clever at the top of the board costs more than it gains. The room to differentiate is at the bottom, where a near coin flip carrying one or two points barely changes your expected score either way.
Does the point spread matter in a confidence pool?
Only as a signal, never for scoring. Confidence pools are decided straight up, so a team winning by one point scores the same as a team winning by thirty. The spread is shown here because it is the quickest read on how large a favorite each pick is.
Want the raw data behind these reports?
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