Survivor Grid
Every team's opponent and spread, all 18 weeks, shaded by how big a favourite they are.
Reading a cell. The line is from that team's side, so −7.5 means they are laying seven and a half. @ marks a road game. Greener is a bigger favourite; red means they are the underdog.
The trap this grid is for. A survivor pick costs you that team for the rest of the season, so the question is never who wins this week but who you can afford to spend. Scan a row before taking it: a team laying double digits in week 3 and again in week 12 is worth saving for one of them.
Our path, one team once· 6–1 so far
- W1 JAX ✓ 34–10
- W2 LAC ✗ 14–26
- W3 SF ✓ 36–30
- W4 MIN ✓ 15–10
- W5 DET ✓ 45–21
- W6 NE ✓ 26–19
- W7 DEN ✓ 30–16
- W8 DAL
- W9 KC
- W10 LA
- W11 CHI
- W12 CIN
- W13 PHI
- W14 SEA
- W15 GB
- W16 BAL
- W17 BUF
- W18 HOU
Our week 2 pick, LAC, lost 14–26 to LV. In a standard one-strike pool this path is out; we keep the rest of it here as our plan for pools with buybacks or multiple strikes.
Highlighted in the grid below. Every team is used exactly once, which is the constraint that makes the whole season a single puzzle rather than eighteen separate picks.
| Team | W1JAX ✓ | W2LAC ✗ | W3SF ✓ | W4MIN ✓ | W5DET ✓ | W6NE ✓ | W7DEN ✓ | W8DAL | W9KC | W10LA | W11CHI | W12CIN | W13PHI | W14SEA | W15GB | W16BAL | W17BUF | W18HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | @LAC+9.5 | SEA+4 | @SF+7.5 | @NYG-2.5 | DET+5.5 | @LA+13 | DEN+4.5 | @DAL+6.5 | @SEA+13.5 | LA+10.5 | @KC+11.5 | WAS+4.5 | PHI+8.5 | bye | NYJ-1.5 | @NO+5.5 | LV+1.5 | SF+8.5 |
| ATL | @PIT+6.5 | CAR+2.5 | @GB+4.5 | @NO+1 | BAL-3.5 | CHI+1.5 | SF+2.5 | @TB+1.5 | CIN+4.5 | KC+4.5 | bye | @MIN+4.5 | DET+3.5 | @CLE+1.5 | @WAS+3.5 | TB+1.5 | NO-1.5 | @CAR+2.5 |
| BAL | @IND-3 | NO-8.5 | @DAL-3.5 | TEN-11.5 | @ATL+3.5 | @CLE-3.5 | CIN+3 | @BUF+3.5 | JAX-4.5 | LAC-3 | @CAR-4.5 | @HOU+1.5 | bye | TB-6 | @PIT-2.5 | CLE-10 | @CIN+2.5 | PIT-5.5 |
| BUF | @HOU-1.5 | DET-5.5 | LAC-7 | NE-7 | @LA+3.5 | @LV-5 | bye | BAL-3.5 | @MIN-3 | @NYJ-7 | MIA-11.5 | KC-2.5 | @NE+1.5 | @GB+1.5 | CHI-3.5 | @DEN-1.5 | @MIA-7.5 | NYJ-10 |
| CAR | CHI+3 | @ATL-2.5 | @CLE-1.5 | DET+4 | bye | @PHI-3 | TB-3 | @GB+3.5 | DEN+3 | @NO+1.5 | BAL+4.5 | @TB+3.5 | @MIN+3.5 | NO-2.5 | CIN+2.5 | @PIT+3.5 | SEA+5.5 | ATL-2.5 |
| CHI | @CAR-3 | MIN-4.5 | PHI+3.5 | NYJ-3.5 | @GB-1.5 | @ATL-1.5 | NE-3 | @SEA+3 | TB-3.5 | bye | NO-6.5 | @DET+2.5 | JAX-3 | @MIA-5.5 | @BUF+3.5 | GB-1.5 | DET-1.5 | @MIN+1.5 |
| CIN | TB-3.5 | @HOU+2.5 | @PIT-3 | JAX-2.5 | @MIA-7 | bye | @BAL-3 | TEN-10.5 | @ATL-4.5 | PIT-3.5 | @WAS-1.5 | NO-6.5 | @CLE-4.5 | KC-1.5 | @CAR-2.5 | @IND-1.5 | BAL-2.5 | CLE-7.5 |
| CLE | @JAX+9 | @TB+8.5 | CAR+1.5 | PIT+3 | @NYJ+2.5 | BAL+3.5 | @TEN-2 | @PIT+3.5 | @NO+3.5 | HOU+4.5 | bye | LV-1.5 | CIN+4.5 | ATL-1.5 | @NYG+4.5 | @BAL+10 | IND+2.5 | @CIN+7.5 |
| DAL | @NYG-3 | WAS-4 | BAL+3.5 | @HOU+3 | TB-9.5 | @GB-1 | @PHI-4.5 | ARI-6.5 | @IND-1.5 | SF-1.5 | TEN-6.5 | PHI-1.5 | @SEA+4.5 | bye | @LA+6 | JAX-3 | NYG-4.5 | @WAS-1.5 |
| DEN | @KC+2 | JAX-2.5 | LA+1 | @SF+3 | @LAC-3.5 | SEA+2.5 | @ARI-4.5 | KC+1.5 | @CAR-3 | bye | LV-7.5 | @PIT-1.5 | MIA-9.5 | @NYJ-5.5 | @LV-4.5 | BUF+1.5 | @NE+2.5 | LAC-1.5 |
| DET | NO-7 | @BUF+5.5 | NYJ-7 | @CAR-4 | @ARI-5.5 | bye | GB-3.5 | MIN-3 | @MIA-6.5 | NE0 | TB-4.5 | CHI-2.5 | @ATL-3.5 | TEN-7.5 | @MIN-1.5 | NYG-4.5 | @CHI+1.5 | @GB+2.5 |
| GB | @MIN+2 | @NYJ-3.5 | ATL-4.5 | @TB-3 | CHI+1.5 | DAL+1 | @DET+3.5 | CAR-3.5 | @NE+1.5 | MIN-4.5 | bye | @LA+5.5 | @NO-4.5 | BUF-1.5 | MIA-10.5 | @CHI+1.5 | HOU-2.5 | DET-2.5 |
| HOU | BUF+1.5 | CIN-2.5 | @IND-1.5 | DAL-3 | @TEN-6.5 | @JAX+2.5 | NYG-10.5 | bye | @LAC+2 | @CLE-4.5 | IND-5.5 | BAL-1.5 | @PIT-1.5 | @WAS-1.5 | JAX-3 | @PHI+2.5 | @GB+2.5 | TEN-7 |
| IND | BAL+3 | @KC+6 | HOU+1.5 | @WAS-4.5 | @PIT+3 | TEN-6.5 | @MIN+7 | @JAX+7.5 | DAL+1.5 | MIA-6.5 | @HOU+5.5 | NYG-2.5 | bye | @PHI+5.5 | @TEN-1.5 | CIN+1.5 | @CLE-2.5 | JAX-1.5 |
| JAX | CLE-9 | @DEN+2.5 | NE-3 | @CIN+2.5 | PHI-8 | HOU-2.5 | bye | IND-7.5 | @BAL+4.5 | @TEN-2.5 | @NYG-1.5 | TEN-5.5 | @CHI+3 | PIT-3 | @HOU+3 | @DAL+3 | WAS-3.5 | @IND+1.5 |
| KC | DEN-2 | IND-6 | @MIA-9.5 | @LV-4.5 | bye | LAC-7.5 | @SEA+3 | @DEN-1.5 | NYJ-9.5 | @ATL-4.5 | ARI-11.5 | @BUF+2.5 | @LA+3.5 | @CIN+1.5 | NE-2.5 | SF-3 | @LAC+1.5 | LV-8.5 |
| LA | SF-3.5 | NYG-6.5 | @DEN-1 | @PHI-3.5 | BUF-3.5 | ARI-13 | @LV-3.5 | LAC-7.5 | @WAS-5.5 | @ARI-10.5 | bye | GB-5.5 | KC-3.5 | @SF-1.5 | DAL-6 | @SEA+1.5 | @TB-4.5 | SEA-3 |
| LAC | ARI-9.5 | LV-6.5 | @BUF+7 | @SEA+7 | DEN+3.5 | @KC+7.5 | bye | @LA+7.5 | HOU-2 | @BAL+3 | NYJ-9.5 | NE-2 | @TB-2 | @LV-5.5 | SF-2.5 | @MIA-7 | KC-1.5 | @DEN+1.5 |
| LV | MIA-3 | @LAC+6.5 | @NO+3.5 | KC+4.5 | @NE+3.5 | BUF+5 | LA+3.5 | @NYJ+1.5 | @SF+8.5 | SEA+7 | @DEN+7.5 | @CLE+1.5 | bye | LAC+5.5 | DEN+4.5 | TEN-1.5 | @ARI-1.5 | @KC+8.5 |
| MIA | @LV+3 | @SF+13.5 | KC+9.5 | @MIN+10 | CIN+7 | bye | @NYJ+3.5 | NE+7.5 | DET+6.5 | @IND+6.5 | @BUF+11.5 | NYJ-1.5 | @DEN+9.5 | CHI+5.5 | @GB+10.5 | LAC+7 | BUF+7.5 | @NE+10.5 |
| MIN | GB-2 | @CHI+4.5 | @TB-1.5 | MIA-10 | @NO-2.5 | bye | IND-7 | @DET+3 | BUF+3 | @GB+4.5 | @SF+4.5 | ATL-4.5 | CAR-3.5 | @NE+4.5 | DET+1.5 | WAS-2.5 | @NYJ-3.5 | CHI-1.5 |
| NE | @SEA+3 | PIT-4.5 | @JAX+3 | @BUF+7 | LV-3.5 | NYJ-7 | @CHI+3 | @MIA-7.5 | GB-1.5 | @DET0 | bye | @LAC+2 | BUF-1.5 | MIN-4.5 | @KC+2.5 | @NYJ-6.5 | DEN-2.5 | MIA-10.5 |
| NO | @DET+7 | @BAL+8.5 | LV-3.5 | ATL-1 | MIN+2.5 | @NYG-0.5 | PIT+3 | bye | CLE-3.5 | CAR-1.5 | @CHI+6.5 | @CIN+6.5 | GB+4.5 | @CAR+2.5 | @TB+3.5 | ARI-5.5 | @ATL+1.5 | TB+1.5 |
| NYG | DAL+3 | @LA+6.5 | TEN-2.5 | ARI+2.5 | @WAS+3.5 | NO+0.5 | @HOU+10.5 | bye | @PHI+5.5 | WAS-1.5 | JAX+1.5 | @IND+2.5 | SF+3 | @SEA+7.5 | CLE-4.5 | @DET+4.5 | @DAL+4.5 | PHI+3 |
| NYJ | @TEN+1.5 | GB+3.5 | @DET+7 | @CHI+3.5 | CLE-2.5 | @NE+7 | MIA-3.5 | LV-1.5 | @KC+9.5 | BUF+7 | @LAC+9.5 | @MIA+1.5 | bye | DEN+5.5 | @ARI+1.5 | NE+6.5 | MIN+3.5 | @BUF+10 |
| PHI | WAS-6 | @TEN-7 | @CHI-3.5 | LA+3.5 | @JAX+8 | CAR+3 | DAL+4.5 | @WAS+3.5 | NYG-5.5 | bye | PIT-5.5 | @DAL+1.5 | @ARI-8.5 | IND-5.5 | SEA-1.5 | HOU-2.5 | @SF+1.5 | @NYG-3 |
| PIT | ATL-6.5 | @NE+4.5 | CIN+3 | @CLE-3 | IND-3 | @TB-2.5 | @NO-3 | CLE-3.5 | bye | @CIN+3.5 | @PHI+5.5 | DEN+1.5 | HOU+1.5 | @JAX+3 | BAL+2.5 | CAR-3.5 | @TEN-1.5 | @BAL+5.5 |
| SEA | NE-3 | @ARI-4 | @WAS-8.5 | LAC-7 | SF-3 | @DEN-2.5 | KC-3 | CHI-3 | ARI-13.5 | @LV-7 | bye | @SF+1.5 | DAL-4.5 | NYG-7.5 | @PHI+1.5 | LA-1.5 | @CAR-5.5 | @LA+3 |
| SF | @LA+3.5 | MIA-13.5 | ARI-7.5 | DEN-3 | @SEA+3 | WAS-7.5 | @ATL-2.5 | bye | LV-8.5 | @DAL+1.5 | MIN-4.5 | SEA-1.5 | @NYG-3 | LA+1.5 | @LAC+2.5 | @KC+3 | PHI-1.5 | @ARI-8.5 |
| TB | @CIN+3.5 | CLE-8.5 | MIN+1.5 | GB+3 | @DAL+9.5 | PIT+2.5 | @CAR+3 | ATL-1.5 | @CHI+3.5 | bye | @DET+4.5 | CAR-3.5 | LAC+2 | @BAL+6 | NO-3.5 | @ATL-1.5 | LA+4.5 | @NO-1.5 |
| TEN | NYJ-1.5 | PHI+7 | @NYG+2.5 | @BAL+11.5 | HOU+6.5 | @IND+6.5 | CLE+2 | @CIN+10.5 | bye | JAX+2.5 | @DAL+6.5 | @JAX+5.5 | WAS+1.5 | @DET+7.5 | IND+1.5 | @LV+1.5 | PIT+1.5 | @HOU+7 |
| WAS | @PHI+6 | @DAL+4 | SEA+8.5 | IND+4.5 | NYG-3.5 | @SF+7.5 | bye | PHI-3.5 | LA+5.5 | @NYG+1.5 | CIN+1.5 | @ARI-4.5 | @TEN-1.5 | HOU+1.5 | ATL-3.5 | @MIN+2.5 | @JAX+3.5 | DAL+1.5 |
Median spread across every sportsbook captured for that game, taken at each book's most recent price. Weeks 1 and 2 are quoted by most of the market; distant weeks by as few as 1 book, so treat a week 15 number as a sketch that will move. Nothing here is a projection. It is the market, as captured. Hover a cell for the book count and whether it is a division game.
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