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25 seasons of NFL data in Excel format, updated weekly.
Heartbreakers
Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.
Top 25 of all time
1
IND peaked at 100% win probability, lost 39–36 to MIN.MIN bottomed out at 0%.
100%
Peak WP
2
TAM peaked at 100% win probability, lost 38–35 to IND.IND bottomed out at 0%.
100%
Peak WP
3
NYG peaked at 100% win probability, lost 38–31 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 0%.
100%
Peak WP
4
CLE peaked at 100% win probability, lost 27–21 to CHI.CHI bottomed out at 0%.
100%
Peak WP
5
SEA peaked at 99% win probability, lost 44–41 to BAL.BAL bottomed out at 1%.
99%
Peak WP
6
99%
Peak WP
7
99%
Peak WP
8
NYG peaked at 99% win probability, lost 24–21 to TEN.TEN bottomed out at 1%.
99%
Peak WP
9
99%
Peak WP
10
99%
Peak WP
11
NOR peaked at 99% win probability, lost 17–16 to TAM.TAM bottomed out at 1%.
99%
Peak WP
12
PIT peaked at 99% win probability, lost 26–23 to CIN.CIN bottomed out at 1%.
99%
Peak WP
13
LAR peaked at 99% win probability, lost 38–37 to SEA.SEA bottomed out at 1%.
99%
Peak WP
14
99%
Peak WP
15
PHI peaked at 99% win probability, lost 21–20 to DAL.DAL bottomed out at 1%.
99%
Peak WP
16
99%
Peak WP
17
99%
Peak WP
18
99%
Peak WP
19
LAR peaked at 98% win probability, lost 27–24 to SFO.SFO bottomed out at 2%.
98%
Peak WP
20
98%
Peak WP
21
PIT peaked at 98% win probability, lost 34–34 to ATL.ATL bottomed out at 2%.
98%
Peak WP
22
98%
Peak WP
23
98%
Peak WP
24
98%
Peak WP
25
98%
Peak WP
Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).