Heartbreakers
Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.
Top 25 of all time
DET peaked at 77% win probability, lost 38–35 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 23%.
LAR peaked at 57% win probability, lost 31–10 to BUF.BUF bottomed out at 43%.
DEN peaked at 57% win probability, lost 17–16 to SEA.SEA bottomed out at 43%.
ARI peaked at 57% win probability, lost 44–21 to KAN.KAN bottomed out at 43%.
Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).
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