Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars, Week 6 2026

Top Plays by Win Probability

Plays that swung the outcome the most, ranked by win probability change.

1. 1
   Q4 · 0:03·HOU 34, JAX 31

   (:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.

   +29pp

   HOU
2. 2
   Q4 · 3:59·HOU 31, JAX 28

   (3:59) (Shotgun) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 7-C.Stroud pass short right intended for 19-X.Hutchinson INTERCEPTED by 12-T.Hunter at JAX -5. Touchback. Penalty on HOU-79-A.Ersery, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.

   +24pp

   JAX
3. 3
   Q4 · 1:04·HOU 31, JAX 31

   (1:04) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 4-W.Marks pushed ob at JAX 41 for 19 yards (50-B.Combs).

   +15pp

   HOU
4. 4