Skip to content

Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 6 of 2025

1
ARI27
at
IND31

ARI peaked at 75% win probability, lost 31–27 to IND.IND bottomed out at 25%.

75%
Peak WP
View game flow →
2
DEN13
at
NYJ11

NYJ peaked at 72% win probability, lost 13–11 to DEN.DEN bottomed out at 28%.

72%
Peak WP
View game flow →
3
SEA20
at
JAX12

JAX peaked at 70% win probability, lost 20–12 to SEA.SEA bottomed out at 30%.

70%
Peak WP
View game flow →
4
LAC29
at
MIA27

MIA peaked at 68% win probability, lost 29–27 to LAC.LAC bottomed out at 32%.

68%
Peak WP
View game flow →
5
PHI17
at
NYG34

PHI peaked at 57% win probability, lost 34–17 to NYG.NYG bottomed out at 43%.

57%
Peak WP
View game flow →
6
CLE9
at
PIT23

CLE peaked at 46% win probability, lost 23–9 to PIT.PIT bottomed out at 54%.

46%
Peak WP
View game flow →
7
TEN10
at
LVR20

TEN peaked at 45% win probability, lost 20–10 to LVR.LVR bottomed out at 55%.

45%
Peak WP
View game flow →

Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

Want the raw data behind these reports?

25 seasons of NFL data in Excel format, updated weekly.

Browse the Digital Vault