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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 17 of 2025

1
JAX23
at
IND17

IND peaked at 78% win probability, lost 23–17 to JAX.JAX bottomed out at 22%.

78%
Peak WP
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2
DEN20
at
KAN13

KAN peaked at 75% win probability, lost 20–13 to DEN.DEN bottomed out at 25%.

75%
Peak WP
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3
PHI13
at
BUF12

BUF peaked at 72% win probability, lost 13–12 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 28%.

72%
Peak WP
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4
SEA27
at
CAR10

CAR peaked at 58% win probability, lost 27–10 to SEA.SEA bottomed out at 42%.

58%
Peak WP
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5
NWE42
at
NYJ10

NYJ peaked at 57% win probability, lost 42–10 to NWE.NWE bottomed out at 43%.

57%
Peak WP
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6
DET10
at
MIN23

DET peaked at 55% win probability, lost 23–10 to MIN.MIN bottomed out at 45%.

55%
Peak WP
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7
PIT6
at
CLE13

PIT peaked at 48% win probability, lost 13–6 to CLE.CLE bottomed out at 52%.

48%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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