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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 14 of 2025

1
PHI19
at
LAC22

PHI peaked at 83% win probability, lost 22–19 to LAC.LAC bottomed out at 17%.

83%
Peak WP
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2
SEA37
at
ATL9

ATL peaked at 66% win probability, lost 37–9 to SEA.SEA bottomed out at 34%.

66%
Peak WP
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3
PIT27
at
BAL22

BAL peaked at 65% win probability, lost 27–22 to PIT.PIT bottomed out at 35%.

65%
Peak WP
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4
DEN24
at
LVR17

LVR peaked at 58% win probability, lost 24–17 to DEN.DEN bottomed out at 42%.

58%
Peak WP
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5
MIA34
at
NYJ10

NYJ peaked at 57% win probability, lost 34–10 to MIA.MIA bottomed out at 43%.

57%
Peak WP
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6
IND19
at
JAX36

IND peaked at 50% win probability, lost 36–19 to JAX.JAX bottomed out at 50%.

50%
Peak WP
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7
WAS0
at
MIN31

WAS peaked at 45% win probability, lost 31–0 to MIN.MIN bottomed out at 55%.

45%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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