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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 12 of 2025

1
PHI21
at
DAL24

PHI peaked at 94% win probability, lost 24–21 to DAL.DAL bottomed out at 6%.

94%
Peak WP
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2
IND20
at
KAN23

IND peaked at 91% win probability, lost 23–20 to KAN.KAN bottomed out at 9%.

91%
Peak WP
View game flow →
3
SEA30
at
TEN24

TEN peaked at 68% win probability, lost 30–24 to SEA.SEA bottomed out at 32%.

68%
Peak WP
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4
NYJ10
at
BAL23

NYJ peaked at 67% win probability, lost 23–10 to BAL.BAL bottomed out at 33%.

67%
Peak WP
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5
ATL24
at
NOR10

NOR peaked at 64% win probability, lost 24–10 to ATL.ATL bottomed out at 36%.

64%
Peak WP
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6
NYG27
at
DET34

NYG peaked at 64% win probability, lost 34–27 to DET.DET bottomed out at 36%.

64%
Peak WP
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7
MIN6
at
GNB23

MIN peaked at 53% win probability, lost 23–6 to GNB.GNB bottomed out at 47%.

53%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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