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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 4 of 2024

1
DEN10
at
NYJ9

NYJ peaked at 79% win probability, lost 10–9 to DEN.DEN bottomed out at 21%.

79%
Peak WP
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2
CLE16
at
LVR20

CLE peaked at 72% win probability, lost 20–16 to LVR.LVR bottomed out at 28%.

72%
Peak WP
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3
NOR24
at
ATL26

NOR peaked at 71% win probability, lost 26–24 to ATL.ATL bottomed out at 29%.

71%
Peak WP
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4
MIN31
at
GNB29

GNB peaked at 61% win probability, lost 31–29 to MIN.MIN bottomed out at 39%.

61%
Peak WP
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5
SEA29
at
DET42

SEA peaked at 55% win probability, lost 42–29 to DET.DET bottomed out at 45%.

55%
Peak WP
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6
PIT24
at
IND27

PIT peaked at 45% win probability, lost 27–24 to IND.IND bottomed out at 55%.

45%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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