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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 16 of 2025

1
LAR37
at
SEA38

LAR peaked at 99% win probability, lost 38–37 to SEA.SEA bottomed out at 1%.

99%
Peak WP
View game flow →
2
PIT29
at
DET24

DET peaked at 76% win probability, lost 29–24 to PIT.PIT bottomed out at 24%.

76%
Peak WP
View game flow →
3
PHI29
at
WAS18

WAS peaked at 74% win probability, lost 29–18 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 26%.

74%
Peak WP
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4
JAX34
at
DEN20

DEN peaked at 70% win probability, lost 34–20 to JAX.JAX bottomed out at 30%.

70%
Peak WP
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5
MIN16
at
NYG13

NYG peaked at 64% win probability, lost 16–13 to MIN.MIN bottomed out at 36%.

64%
Peak WP
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6
NYJ6
at
NOR29

NYJ peaked at 62% win probability, lost 29–6 to NOR.NOR bottomed out at 38%.

62%
Peak WP
View game flow →

Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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