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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 9 of 2024

1
LAR26
at
SEA20

SEA peaked at 90% win probability, lost 26–20 to LAR.LAR bottomed out at 10%.

90%
Peak WP
View game flow →
2
NOR22
at
CAR23

NOR peaked at 84% win probability, lost 23–22 to CAR.CAR bottomed out at 16%.

84%
Peak WP
View game flow →
3
HOU13
at
NYJ21

HOU peaked at 78% win probability, lost 21–13 to NYJ.NYJ bottomed out at 22%.

78%
Peak WP
View game flow →
4
IND13
at
MIN21

IND peaked at 77% win probability, lost 21–13 to MIN.MIN bottomed out at 23%.

77%
Peak WP
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5
JAX23
at
PHI28

JAX peaked at 51% win probability, lost 28–23 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 49%.

51%
Peak WP
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6
DEN10
at
BAL41

DEN peaked at 47% win probability, lost 41–10 to BAL.BAL bottomed out at 53%.

47%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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