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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 8 of 2024

1
NYJ22
at
NWE25

NYJ peaked at 81% win probability, lost 25–22 to NWE.NWE bottomed out at 19%.

81%
Peak WP
View game flow →
2
PHI37
at
CIN17

CIN peaked at 81% win probability, lost 37–17 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 19%.

81%
Peak WP
View game flow →
3
CAR14
at
DEN28

CAR peaked at 71% win probability, lost 28–14 to DEN.DEN bottomed out at 29%.

71%
Peak WP
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4
IND20
at
HOU23

IND peaked at 69% win probability, lost 23–20 to HOU.HOU bottomed out at 31%.

69%
Peak WP
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5
MIN20
at
LAR30

MIN peaked at 64% win probability, lost 30–20 to LAR.LAR bottomed out at 36%.

64%
Peak WP
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6
NOR8
at
LAC26

NOR peaked at 64% win probability, lost 26–8 to LAC.LAC bottomed out at 36%.

64%
Peak WP
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7
BUF31
at
SEA10

SEA peaked at 55% win probability, lost 31–10 to BUF.BUF bottomed out at 45%.

55%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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