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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 1 of 2024

1
DEN20
at
SEA26

DEN peaked at 72% win probability, lost 26–20 to SEA.SEA bottomed out at 28%.

72%
Peak WP
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2
MIN28
at
NYG6

NYG peaked at 68% win probability, lost 28–6 to MIN.MIN bottomed out at 32%.

68%
Peak WP
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3
GNB29
at
PHI34

GNB peaked at 67% win probability, lost 34–29 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 33%.

67%
Peak WP
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4
HOU29
at
IND27

IND peaked at 62% win probability, lost 29–27 to HOU.HOU bottomed out at 38%.

62%
Peak WP
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5
NYJ19
at
SFO32

NYJ peaked at 54% win probability, lost 32–19 to SFO.SFO bottomed out at 46%.

54%
Peak WP
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6
JAX17
at
MIA20

JAX peaked at 52% win probability, lost 20–17 to MIA.MIA bottomed out at 48%.

52%
Peak WP
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7
CAR10
at
NOR47

CAR peaked at 45% win probability, lost 47–10 to NOR.NOR bottomed out at 55%.

45%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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