Heartbreakers
Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.
Top 10 of the 2003 season
NOR peaked at 63% win probability, lost 27–10 to SEA.SEA bottomed out at 37%.
DAL peaked at 58% win probability, lost 27–13 to ATL.ATL bottomed out at 42%.
GNB peaked at 58% win probability, lost 30–25 to MIN.MIN bottomed out at 42%.
BAL peaked at 49% win probability, lost 34–15 to PIT.PIT bottomed out at 51%.
Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).
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