New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks, Week 1 2026

Top Plays by Win Probability

Plays that swung the outcome the most, ranked by win probability change.

1. 1
   Q4 · 0:26·NE 10, SEA 13

   (:26) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right intended for 13-M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by 29-J.Jobe [0-D.Lawrence] at SEA -3. Touchback.

   +42pp

   SEA
2. 2
   Q4 · 11:38·NE 10, SEA 9

   (11:38) 2-D.Lock pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

   +34pp

   SEA
3. 3
   Q4 · 2:00·NE 10, SEA 13

   (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 13-M.Hollins to SEA 36 for 11 yards (13-E.Jones).

   +18pp

   NWE
4. 4