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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 9 of 2025

1
DEN18
at
HOU15

HOU peaked at 89% win probability, lost 18–15 to DEN.DEN bottomed out at 11%.

89%
Peak WP
View game flow →
2
IND20
at
PIT27

IND peaked at 79% win probability, lost 27–20 to PIT.PIT bottomed out at 21%.

79%
Peak WP
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3
CHI47
at
CIN42

CIN peaked at 77% win probability, lost 47–42 to CHI.CHI bottomed out at 23%.

77%
Peak WP
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4
SFO34
at
NYG24

NYG peaked at 72% win probability, lost 34–24 to SFO.SFO bottomed out at 28%.

72%
Peak WP
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5
MIN27
at
DET24

DET peaked at 70% win probability, lost 27–24 to MIN.MIN bottomed out at 30%.

70%
Peak WP
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6
SEA38
at
WAS14

WAS peaked at 57% win probability, lost 38–14 to SEA.SEA bottomed out at 43%.

57%
Peak WP
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7
NOR10
at
LAR34

NOR peaked at 43% win probability, lost 34–10 to LAR.LAR bottomed out at 57%.

43%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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