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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 5 of 2025

1
DEN21
at
PHI17

PHI peaked at 96% win probability, lost 21–17 to DEN.DEN bottomed out at 4%.

96%
Peak WP
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2
MIA24
at
CAR27

MIA peaked at 88% win probability, lost 27–24 to CAR.CAR bottomed out at 12%.

88%
Peak WP
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3
TAM38
at
SEA35

SEA peaked at 87% win probability, lost 38–35 to TAM.TAM bottomed out at 13%.

87%
Peak WP
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4
NYG14
at
NOR26

NYG peaked at 83% win probability, lost 26–14 to NOR.NOR bottomed out at 17%.

83%
Peak WP
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5
DAL37
at
NYJ22

NYJ peaked at 69% win probability, lost 37–22 to DAL.DAL bottomed out at 31%.

69%
Peak WP
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6
LVR6
at
IND40

LVR peaked at 64% win probability, lost 40–6 to IND.IND bottomed out at 36%.

64%
Peak WP
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7
DET37
at
CIN24

CIN peaked at 11% win probability, lost 37–24 to DET.DET bottomed out at 89%.

11%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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