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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 18 of 2025

1
WAS24
at
PHI17

PHI peaked at 83% win probability, lost 24–17 to WAS.WAS bottomed out at 17%.

83%
Peak WP
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2
BAL24
at
PIT26

BAL peaked at 76% win probability, lost 26–24 to PIT.PIT bottomed out at 24%.

76%
Peak WP
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3
KAN12
at
LVR14

KAN peaked at 67% win probability, lost 14–12 to LVR.LVR bottomed out at 33%.

67%
Peak WP
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4
IND30
at
HOU38

IND peaked at 65% win probability, lost 38–30 to HOU.HOU bottomed out at 35%.

65%
Peak WP
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5
SEA13
at
SFO3

SFO peaked at 59% win probability, lost 13–3 to SEA.SEA bottomed out at 41%.

59%
Peak WP
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6
NYJ8
at
BUF35

NYJ peaked at 46% win probability, lost 35–8 to BUF.BUF bottomed out at 54%.

46%
Peak WP
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7
MIA10
at
NWE38

MIA peaked at 45% win probability, lost 38–10 to NWE.NWE bottomed out at 55%.

45%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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