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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 13 of 2025

1
DEN27
at
WAS26

WAS peaked at 92% win probability, lost 27–26 to DEN.DEN bottomed out at 8%.

92%
Peak WP
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2
ATL24
at
NYJ27

ATL peaked at 82% win probability, lost 27–24 to NYJ.NYJ bottomed out at 18%.

82%
Peak WP
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3
BUF26
at
PIT7

PIT peaked at 75% win probability, lost 26–7 to BUF.BUF bottomed out at 25%.

75%
Peak WP
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4
CHI24
at
PHI15

PHI peaked at 68% win probability, lost 24–15 to CHI.CHI bottomed out at 32%.

68%
Peak WP
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5
HOU20
at
IND16

IND peaked at 63% win probability, lost 20–16 to HOU.HOU bottomed out at 37%.

63%
Peak WP
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6
GNB31
at
DET24

DET peaked at 58% win probability, lost 31–24 to GNB.GNB bottomed out at 42%.

58%
Peak WP
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7
MIN0
at
SEA26

MIN peaked at 49% win probability, lost 26–0 to SEA.SEA bottomed out at 51%.

49%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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