Heartbreakers | 2025 Season | The Edge | League Station
Heartbreakers
Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.
Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).
BAL peaked at 99% win probability, lost 41–40 to BUF.BUF bottomed out at 1%.
