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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 6 of 2024

1
IND20
at
TEN17

TEN peaked at 79% win probability, lost 20–17 to IND.IND bottomed out at 21%.

79%
Peak WP
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2
PIT32
at
LVR13

LVR peaked at 76% win probability, lost 32–13 to PIT.PIT bottomed out at 24%.

76%
Peak WP
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3
BUF23
at
NYJ20

NYJ peaked at 70% win probability, lost 23–20 to BUF.BUF bottomed out at 30%.

70%
Peak WP
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4
DET47
at
DAL9

DAL peaked at 66% win probability, lost 47–9 to DET.DET bottomed out at 34%.

66%
Peak WP
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5
SFO36
at
SEA24

SEA peaked at 64% win probability, lost 36–24 to SFO.SFO bottomed out at 36%.

64%
Peak WP
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6
TAM51
at
NOR27

NOR peaked at 57% win probability, lost 51–27 to TAM.TAM bottomed out at 43%.

57%
Peak WP
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7
CLE16
at
PHI20

CLE peaked at 57% win probability, lost 20–16 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 43%.

57%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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