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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 5 of 2024

1
MIA15
at
NWE10

NWE peaked at 82% win probability, lost 15–10 to MIA.MIA bottomed out at 18%.

82%
Peak WP
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2
LVR18
at
DEN34

LVR peaked at 78% win probability, lost 34–18 to DEN.DEN bottomed out at 22%.

78%
Peak WP
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3
DAL20
at
PIT17

PIT peaked at 75% win probability, lost 20–17 to DAL.DAL bottomed out at 25%.

75%
Peak WP
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4
NYG29
at
SEA20

SEA peaked at 74% win probability, lost 29–20 to NYG.NYG bottomed out at 26%.

74%
Peak WP
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5
IND34
at
JAX37

IND peaked at 70% win probability, lost 37–34 to JAX.JAX bottomed out at 30%.

70%
Peak WP
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6
NYJ17
at
MIN23

NYJ peaked at 43% win probability, lost 23–17 to MIN.MIN bottomed out at 57%.

43%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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