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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 17 of 2024

1
DEN24
at
CIN30

DEN peaked at 77% win probability, lost 30–24 to CIN.CIN bottomed out at 23%.

77%
Peak WP
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2
LVR25
at
NOR10

NOR peaked at 73% win probability, lost 25–10 to LVR.LVR bottomed out at 27%.

73%
Peak WP
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3
GNB25
at
MIN27

GNB peaked at 58% win probability, lost 27–25 to MIN.MIN bottomed out at 42%.

58%
Peak WP
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4
DAL7
at
PHI41

DAL peaked at 52% win probability, lost 41–7 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 48%.

52%
Peak WP
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5
NYJ14
at
BUF40

NYJ peaked at 48% win probability, lost 40–14 to BUF.BUF bottomed out at 52%.

48%
Peak WP
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6
IND33
at
NYG45

IND peaked at 48% win probability, lost 45–33 to NYG.NYG bottomed out at 52%.

48%
Peak WP
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7
CAR14
at
TAM48

CAR peaked at 46% win probability, lost 48–14 to TAM.TAM bottomed out at 54%.

46%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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