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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 14 of 2024

1
NYJ26
at
MIA32

NYJ peaked at 89% win probability, lost 32–26 to MIA.MIA bottomed out at 11%.

89%
Peak WP
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2
ATL21
at
MIN42

ATL peaked at 71% win probability, lost 42–21 to MIN.MIN bottomed out at 29%.

71%
Peak WP
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3
SEA30
at
ARI18

ARI peaked at 70% win probability, lost 30–18 to SEA.SEA bottomed out at 30%.

70%
Peak WP
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4
NOR14
at
NYG11

NYG peaked at 70% win probability, lost 14–11 to NOR.NOR bottomed out at 30%.

70%
Peak WP
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5
CAR16
at
PHI22

CAR peaked at 58% win probability, lost 22–16 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 42%.

58%
Peak WP
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6
LVR13
at
TAM28

LVR peaked at 51% win probability, lost 28–13 to TAM.TAM bottomed out at 49%.

51%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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