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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 12 of 2024

1
DEN29
at
LVR19

LVR peaked at 73% win probability, lost 29–19 to DEN.DEN bottomed out at 27%.

73%
Peak WP
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2
MIN30
at
CHI27

CHI peaked at 71% win probability, lost 30–27 to MIN.MIN bottomed out at 29%.

71%
Peak WP
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3
DET24
at
IND6

IND peaked at 70% win probability, lost 24–6 to DET.DET bottomed out at 30%.

70%
Peak WP
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4
PHI37
at
LAR20

LAR peaked at 67% win probability, lost 37–20 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 33%.

67%
Peak WP
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5
ARI6
at
SEA16

ARI peaked at 58% win probability, lost 16–6 to SEA.SEA bottomed out at 42%.

58%
Peak WP
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6
KAN30
at
CAR27

CAR peaked at 57% win probability, lost 30–27 to KAN.KAN bottomed out at 43%.

57%
Peak WP
View game flow →

Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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