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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 18 of 2024

1
CAR44
at
ATL38

ATL peaked at 80% win probability, lost 44–38 to CAR.CAR bottomed out at 20%.

80%
Peak WP
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2
LAC34
at
LVR20

LVR peaked at 75% win probability, lost 34–20 to LAC.LAC bottomed out at 25%.

75%
Peak WP
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3
MIA20
at
NYJ32

MIA peaked at 70% win probability, lost 32–20 to NYJ.NYJ bottomed out at 30%.

70%
Peak WP
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4
JAX23
at
IND26

JAX peaked at 60% win probability, lost 26–23 to IND.IND bottomed out at 40%.

60%
Peak WP
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5
MIN9
at
DET31

MIN peaked at 54% win probability, lost 31–9 to DET.DET bottomed out at 46%.

54%
Peak WP
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6
NYG13
at
PHI20

NYG peaked at 48% win probability, lost 20–13 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 52%.

48%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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