Heartbreakers
Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.
Top 10 of the 2024 season
DEN peaked at 72% win probability, lost 26–20 to SEA.SEA bottomed out at 28%.
GNB peaked at 67% win probability, lost 34–29 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 33%.
IND peaked at 62% win probability, lost 29–27 to HOU.HOU bottomed out at 38%.
NYJ peaked at 54% win probability, lost 32–19 to SFO.SFO bottomed out at 46%.
JAX peaked at 52% win probability, lost 20–17 to MIA.MIA bottomed out at 48%.
CAR peaked at 45% win probability, lost 47–10 to NOR.NOR bottomed out at 55%.
Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).
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