Skip to content

Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 9 of 2023

1
MIN31
at
ATL28

ATL peaked at 87% win probability, lost 31–28 to MIN.MIN bottomed out at 13%.

87%
Peak WP
View game flow →
2
LAC27
at
NYJ6

NYJ peaked at 65% win probability, lost 27–6 to LAC.LAC bottomed out at 35%.

65%
Peak WP
View game flow →
3
DAL23
at
PHI28

DAL peaked at 64% win probability, lost 28–23 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 36%.

64%
Peak WP
View game flow →
4
IND27
at
CAR13

CAR peaked at 60% win probability, lost 27–13 to IND.IND bottomed out at 40%.

60%
Peak WP
View game flow →
5
LAR3
at
GNB20

LAR peaked at 49% win probability, lost 20–3 to GNB.GNB bottomed out at 51%.

49%
Peak WP
View game flow →
6
MIA14
at
KAN21

MIA peaked at 45% win probability, lost 21–14 to KAN.KAN bottomed out at 55%.

45%
Peak WP
View game flow →
7
NYG6
at
LVR30

NYG peaked at 43% win probability, lost 30–6 to LVR.LVR bottomed out at 57%.

43%
Peak WP
View game flow →

Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

Want the raw data behind these reports?

25 seasons of NFL data in Excel format, updated weekly.

Browse the Digital Vault