Skip to content

Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

Week 18 of 2022

1
CAR10
at

NOR peaked at 82% win probability, lost 107 to CAR.CAR bottomed out at 18%.

82%
Peak WP
View game flow →
2
DET20
at
GNB16

GNB peaked at 80% win probability, lost 2016 to DET.DET bottomed out at 20%.

80%
Peak WP
View game flow →
3
LAC28
at
DEN31

LAC peaked at 73% win probability, lost 3128 to DEN.DEN bottomed out at 27%.

73%
Peak WP
View game flow →
4
ARI13
at
SFO38

ARI peaked at 61% win probability, lost 3813 to SFO.SFO bottomed out at 39%.

61%
Peak WP
View game flow →
5
HOU32
at
IND31

IND peaked at 57% win probability, lost 3231 to HOU.HOU bottomed out at 43%.

57%
Peak WP
View game flow →
6
MIN29
at
CHI13

CHI peaked at 55% win probability, lost 2913 to MIN.MIN bottomed out at 45%.

55%
Peak WP
View game flow →
7
NYG16
at
PHI22

NYG peaked at 43% win probability, lost 2216 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 57%.

43%
Peak WP
View game flow →

Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

Want the raw data behind these reports?

25 seasons of NFL data in Excel format, updated weekly.

Browse the Digital Vault