Top Plays by Win Probability

Plays that swung the outcome the most, ranked by win probability change.

1. 1
   Q1 · 9:04·JAX 0, KC 0

   (9:04) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco up the middle to JAX 9 for 4 yards (2-R.Jenkins). FUMBLES (2-R.Jenkins), RECOVERED by JAX-33-D.Lloyd at JAX 7. 33-D.Lloyd to JAX 24 for 17 yards (9-J.Smith-Schuster; 15-P.Mahomes).

   +16pp

   JAX
2. 2
   Q1 · 5:42·JAX 0, KC 0

   (5:42) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 87-T.Kelce pushed ob at JAX 21 for 46 yards (2-R.Jenkins).

   +9pp

   KAN
3. 3
   Q1 · 14:59·JAX 0, KC 0

   (14:59) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne left guard to KC 47 for 7 yards (32-N.Bolton).

   +9pp

   JAX
4. 4
   Q1 · 9:46·JAX 0, KC 0

   (9:46) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 9-J.Smith-Schuster to JAX 13 for 25 yards (37-T.Herndon).

   +8pp

   KAN
5. 5
   Q2 · 13:44·JAX 0, KC 7

   (13:44) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 1-T.Etienne to KC 31 for 24 yards (22-J.Thornhill; 20-J.Reid).

   +8pp

   JAX