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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023

Week 18 of 2021

1
CHI17
at
MIN31

CHI peaked at 84% win probability, lost 31–17 to MIN.MIN bottomed out at 16%.

84%
Peak WP
View game flow →
2
SEA38
at
ARI30

ARI peaked at 81% win probability, lost 38–30 to SEA.SEA bottomed out at 19%.

81%
Peak WP
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3
GNB30
at
DET37

GNB peaked at 72% win probability, lost 37–30 to DET.DET bottomed out at 28%.

72%
Peak WP
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4
DAL51
at
PHI26

PHI peaked at 72% win probability, lost 51–26 to DAL.DAL bottomed out at 28%.

72%
Peak WP
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5
WAS22
at
NYG7

NYG peaked at 60% win probability, lost 22–7 to WAS.WAS bottomed out at 40%.

60%
Peak WP
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6
NOR30
at
ATL20

ATL peaked at 59% win probability, lost 30–20 to NOR.NOR bottomed out at 41%.

59%
Peak WP
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7
TEN28
at
HOU25

HOU peaked at 59% win probability, lost 28–25 to TEN.TEN bottomed out at 41%.

59%
Peak WP
View game flow →

Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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