Heartbreakers
Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.
Top 10 of the 2015 season
CHI peaked at 67% win probability, lost 31–23 to GNB.GNB bottomed out at 33%.
TAM peaked at 61% win probability, lost 42–14 to TEN.TEN bottomed out at 39%.
HOU peaked at 61% win probability, lost 27–20 to KAN.KAN bottomed out at 39%.
WAS peaked at 58% win probability, lost 17–10 to MIA.MIA bottomed out at 42%.
PIT peaked at 55% win probability, lost 28–21 to NWE.NWE bottomed out at 45%.
LVR peaked at 54% win probability, lost 33–13 to CIN.CIN bottomed out at 46%.
Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).
Want the raw data behind these reports?
25 seasons of NFL data in Excel format, updated weekly.