Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans, Week 1 2026

Top Plays by Win Probability

Plays that swung the outcome the most, ranked by win probability change.

1. 1
   Q4 · 1:41·BUF 36, HOU 31

   (1:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 5-J.Palmer for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

   +32pp

   BUF
2. 2
   Q4 · 0:16·BUF 36, HOU 31

   (:16) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at BUF 28 for -10 yards (15-G.Rousseau). FUMBLES (15-G.Rousseau) [15-G.Rousseau], RECOVERED by BUF-8-T.Bernard at BUF 24.

   +30pp

   BUF
3. 3
   Q4 · 0:25·BUF 36, HOU 31

   (:25) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at BUF 18 for -9 yards (96-D.Walker).

   +21pp

   BUF
4. 4