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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 8 of 2025

1
NYJ39
at
CIN38

CIN peaked at 97% win probability, lost 39–38 to NYJ.NYJ bottomed out at 3%.

97%
Peak WP
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2
GNB35
at
PIT25

PIT peaked at 85% win probability, lost 35–25 to GNB.GNB bottomed out at 15%.

85%
Peak WP
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3
MIA34
at
ATL10

ATL peaked at 66% win probability, lost 34–10 to MIA.MIA bottomed out at 34%.

66%
Peak WP
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4
TAM23
at
NOR3

NOR peaked at 61% win probability, lost 23–3 to TAM.TAM bottomed out at 39%.

61%
Peak WP
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5
BUF40
at
CAR9

CAR peaked at 57% win probability, lost 40–9 to BUF.BUF bottomed out at 43%.

57%
Peak WP
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6
TEN14
at
IND38

TEN peaked at 45% win probability, lost 38–14 to IND.IND bottomed out at 55%.

45%
Peak WP
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7
MIN10
at
LAC37

MIN peaked at 44% win probability, lost 37–10 to LAC.LAC bottomed out at 56%.

44%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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