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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 4 of 2025

1
IND20
at
LAR27

IND peaked at 83% win probability, lost 27–20 to LAR.LAR bottomed out at 17%.

83%
Peak WP
View game flow →
2
SEA23
at
ARI20

ARI peaked at 66% win probability, lost 23–20 to SEA.SEA bottomed out at 34%.

66%
Peak WP
View game flow →
3
MIN21
at
PIT24

MIN peaked at 62% win probability, lost 24–21 to PIT.PIT bottomed out at 38%.

62%
Peak WP
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4
PHI31
at
TAM25

TAM peaked at 58% win probability, lost 31–25 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 42%.

58%
Peak WP
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5
CIN3
at
DEN28

CIN peaked at 58% win probability, lost 28–3 to DEN.DEN bottomed out at 42%.

58%
Peak WP
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6
NYJ21
at
MIA27

NYJ peaked at 55% win probability, lost 27–21 to MIA.MIA bottomed out at 45%.

55%
Peak WP
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7
NOR19
at
BUF31

NOR peaked at 47% win probability, lost 31–19 to BUF.BUF bottomed out at 53%.

47%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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