Skip to content

Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 3 of 2025

1
LAR26
at
PHI33

LAR peaked at 92% win probability, lost 33–26 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 8%.

92%
Peak WP
View game flow →
2
PIT21
at
NWE14

NWE peaked at 67% win probability, lost 21–14 to PIT.PIT bottomed out at 33%.

67%
Peak WP
View game flow →
3
DET38
at
BAL30

BAL peaked at 57% win probability, lost 38–30 to DET.DET bottomed out at 43%.

57%
Peak WP
View game flow →
4
IND41
at
TEN20

TEN peaked at 57% win probability, lost 41–20 to IND.IND bottomed out at 43%.

57%
Peak WP
View game flow →
5
NYJ27
at
TAM29

NYJ peaked at 56% win probability, lost 29–27 to TAM.TAM bottomed out at 44%.

56%
Peak WP
View game flow →
6
NOR13
at
SEA44

NOR peaked at 46% win probability, lost 44–13 to SEA.SEA bottomed out at 54%.

46%
Peak WP
View game flow →
7
CIN10
at
MIN48

CIN peaked at 45% win probability, lost 48–10 to MIN.MIN bottomed out at 55%.

45%
Peak WP
View game flow →

Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

Want the raw data behind these reports?

25 seasons of NFL data in Excel format, updated weekly.

Browse the Digital Vault