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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 15 of 2025

1
GNB26
at
DEN34

GNB peaked at 81% win probability, lost 34–26 to DEN.DEN bottomed out at 19%.

81%
Peak WP
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2
MIN34
at
DAL26

DAL peaked at 79% win probability, lost 34–26 to MIN.MIN bottomed out at 21%.

79%
Peak WP
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3
IND16
at
SEA18

IND peaked at 78% win probability, lost 18–16 to SEA.SEA bottomed out at 22%.

78%
Peak WP
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4
DET34
at
LAR41

DET peaked at 63% win probability, lost 41–34 to LAR.LAR bottomed out at 37%.

63%
Peak WP
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5
MIA15
at
PIT28

MIA peaked at 53% win probability, lost 28–15 to PIT.PIT bottomed out at 47%.

53%
Peak WP
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6
LVR0
at
PHI31

LVR peaked at 45% win probability, lost 31–0 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 55%.

45%
Peak WP
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7
NYJ20
at
JAX48

NYJ peaked at 45% win probability, lost 48–20 to JAX.JAX bottomed out at 55%.

45%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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