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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 10 of 2025

1
BAL27
at
MIN19

MIN peaked at 81% win probability, lost 27–19 to BAL.BAL bottomed out at 19%.

81%
Peak WP
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2
LVR7
at
DEN10

LVR peaked at 75% win probability, lost 10–7 to DEN.DEN bottomed out at 25%.

75%
Peak WP
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3
PHI10
at
GNB7

GNB peaked at 63% win probability, lost 10–7 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 37%.

63%
Peak WP
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4
PIT10
at
LAC25

PIT peaked at 61% win probability, lost 25–10 to LAC.LAC bottomed out at 39%.

61%
Peak WP
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5
ATL25
at
IND31

ATL peaked at 53% win probability, lost 31–25 to IND.IND bottomed out at 47%.

53%
Peak WP
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6
BUF13
at
MIA30

BUF peaked at 50% win probability, lost 30–13 to MIA.MIA bottomed out at 50%.

50%
Peak WP
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7
ARI22
at
SEA44

ARI peaked at 47% win probability, lost 44–22 to SEA.SEA bottomed out at 53%.

47%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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