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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 1 of 2025

1
MIN27
at
CHI24

CHI peaked at 95% win probability, lost 27–24 to MIN.MIN bottomed out at 5%.

95%
Peak WP
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2
PIT34
at
NYJ32

NYJ peaked at 84% win probability, lost 34–32 to PIT.PIT bottomed out at 16%.

84%
Peak WP
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3
SFO17
at
SEA13

SEA peaked at 76% win probability, lost 17–13 to SFO.SFO bottomed out at 24%.

76%
Peak WP
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4
LVR20
at
NWE13

NWE peaked at 65% win probability, lost 20–13 to LVR.LVR bottomed out at 35%.

65%
Peak WP
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5
DAL20
at
PHI24

DAL peaked at 62% win probability, lost 24–20 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 38%.

62%
Peak WP
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6
TEN12
at
DEN20

TEN peaked at 61% win probability, lost 20–12 to DEN.DEN bottomed out at 39%.

61%
Peak WP
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7
MIA8
at
IND33

MIA peaked at 50% win probability, lost 33–8 to IND.IND bottomed out at 50%.

50%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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