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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 2 of 2024

1
NYJ24
at
TEN17

TEN peaked at 84% win probability, lost 24–17 to NYJ.NYJ bottomed out at 16%.

84%
Peak WP
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2
LVR26
at
BAL23

BAL peaked at 80% win probability, lost 26–23 to LVR.LVR bottomed out at 20%.

80%
Peak WP
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3
NOR44
at
DAL19

DAL peaked at 59% win probability, lost 44–19 to NOR.NOR bottomed out at 41%.

59%
Peak WP
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4
BUF31
at
MIA10

MIA peaked at 57% win probability, lost 31–10 to BUF.BUF bottomed out at 43%.

57%
Peak WP
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5
LAC26
at
CAR3

CAR peaked at 57% win probability, lost 26–3 to LAC.LAC bottomed out at 43%.

57%
Peak WP
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6
SFO17
at
MIN23

SFO peaked at 50% win probability, lost 23–17 to MIN.MIN bottomed out at 50%.

50%
Peak WP
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7
IND10
at
GNB16

IND peaked at 45% win probability, lost 16–10 to GNB.GNB bottomed out at 55%.

45%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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