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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 8 of 2023

1
NYJ13
at
NYG10

NYG peaked at 97% win probability, lost 13–10 to NYJ.NYJ bottomed out at 3%.

97%
Peak WP
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2
PHI38
at
WAS31

WAS peaked at 88% win probability, lost 38–31 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 12%.

88%
Peak WP
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3
NOR38
at
IND27

IND peaked at 80% win probability, lost 38–27 to NOR.NOR bottomed out at 20%.

80%
Peak WP
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4
HOU13
at
CAR15

HOU peaked at 73% win probability, lost 15–13 to CAR.CAR bottomed out at 27%.

73%
Peak WP
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5
NWE17
at
MIA31

NWE peaked at 62% win probability, lost 31–17 to MIA.MIA bottomed out at 38%.

62%
Peak WP
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6
MIN24
at
GNB10

GNB peaked at 56% win probability, lost 24–10 to MIN.MIN bottomed out at 44%.

56%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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