Skip to content

Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 7 of 2023

1
CLE39
at
IND38

IND peaked at 90% win probability, lost 39–38 to CLE.CLE bottomed out at 10%.

90%
Peak WP
View game flow →
2
PIT24
at
LAR17

LAR peaked at 87% win probability, lost 24–17 to PIT.PIT bottomed out at 13%.

87%
Peak WP
View game flow →
3
SFO17
at
MIN22

SFO peaked at 62% win probability, lost 22–17 to MIN.MIN bottomed out at 38%.

62%
Peak WP
View game flow →
4
LVR12
at
CHI30

LVR peaked at 61% win probability, lost 30–12 to CHI.CHI bottomed out at 39%.

61%
Peak WP
View game flow →
5
JAX31
at
NOR24

NOR peaked at 58% win probability, lost 31–24 to JAX.JAX bottomed out at 42%.

58%
Peak WP
View game flow →
6
MIA17
at
PHI31

MIA peaked at 56% win probability, lost 31–17 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 44%.

56%
Peak WP
View game flow →
7
GNB17
at
DEN19

GNB peaked at 51% win probability, lost 19–17 to DEN.DEN bottomed out at 49%.

51%
Peak WP
View game flow →

Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

Want the raw data behind these reports?

25 seasons of NFL data in Excel format, updated weekly.

Browse the Digital Vault