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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 6 of 2023

1
PHI14
at
NYJ20

PHI peaked at 84% win probability, lost 20–14 to NYJ.NYJ bottomed out at 16%.

84%
Peak WP
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2
CAR21
at
MIA42

CAR peaked at 81% win probability, lost 42–21 to MIA.MIA bottomed out at 19%.

81%
Peak WP
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3
SFO17
at
CLE19

SFO peaked at 63% win probability, lost 19–17 to CLE.CLE bottomed out at 37%.

63%
Peak WP
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4
MIN19
at
CHI13

CHI peaked at 63% win probability, lost 19–13 to MIN.MIN bottomed out at 37%.

63%
Peak WP
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5
NOR13
at
HOU20

NOR peaked at 60% win probability, lost 20–13 to HOU.HOU bottomed out at 40%.

60%
Peak WP
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6
IND20
at
JAX37

IND peaked at 58% win probability, lost 37–20 to JAX.JAX bottomed out at 42%.

58%
Peak WP
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7
DEN8
at
KAN19

DEN peaked at 48% win probability, lost 19–8 to KAN.KAN bottomed out at 52%.

48%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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