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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 5 of 2023

1
NYJ31
at
DEN21

DEN peaked at 79% win probability, lost 31–21 to NYJ.NYJ bottomed out at 21%.

79%
Peak WP
View game flow →
2
BAL10
at
PIT17

BAL peaked at 77% win probability, lost 17–10 to PIT.PIT bottomed out at 23%.

77%
Peak WP
View game flow →
3
PHI23
at
LAR14

LAR peaked at 70% win probability, lost 23–14 to PHI.PHI bottomed out at 30%.

70%
Peak WP
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4
GNB13
at
LVR17

GNB peaked at 65% win probability, lost 17–13 to LVR.LVR bottomed out at 35%.

65%
Peak WP
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5
TEN16
at
IND23

TEN peaked at 63% win probability, lost 23–16 to IND.IND bottomed out at 37%.

63%
Peak WP
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6
KAN27
at
MIN20

MIN peaked at 61% win probability, lost 27–20 to KAN.KAN bottomed out at 39%.

61%
Peak WP
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7
CAR24
at
DET42

CAR peaked at 49% win probability, lost 42–24 to DET.DET bottomed out at 51%.

49%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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