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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 18 of 2023

1
ATL17
at
NOR48

ATL peaked at 70% win probability, lost 48–17 to NOR.NOR bottomed out at 30%.

70%
Peak WP
View game flow →
2
HOU23
at
IND19

IND peaked at 66% win probability, lost 23–19 to HOU.HOU bottomed out at 34%.

66%
Peak WP
View game flow →
3
TAM9
at
CAR0

CAR peaked at 65% win probability, lost 9–0 to TAM.TAM bottomed out at 35%.

65%
Peak WP
View game flow →
4
CHI9
at
GNB17

CHI peaked at 62% win probability, lost 17–9 to GNB.GNB bottomed out at 38%.

62%
Peak WP
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5
PHI10
at
NYG27

PHI peaked at 54% win probability, lost 27–10 to NYG.NYG bottomed out at 46%.

54%
Peak WP
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6
DEN14
at
LVR27

DEN peaked at 45% win probability, lost 27–14 to LVR.LVR bottomed out at 55%.

45%
Peak WP
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7
CLE14
at
CIN31

CLE peaked at 43% win probability, lost 31–14 to CIN.CIN bottomed out at 57%.

43%
Peak WP
View game flow →

Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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