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Heartbreakers

Games where the losing team reached a high win probability and still lost: biggest collapses, most improbable comebacks. Powered by nflfastR play-by-play.

SeasonBy WeekAll-Time
Season:202520242023
Week:181716151413121110987654321

Week 17 of 2023

1
ARI35
at
PHI31

PHI peaked at 92% win probability, lost 35–31 to ARI.ARI bottomed out at 8%.

92%
Peak WP
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2
MIA19
at
BAL56

MIA peaked at 65% win probability, lost 56–19 to BAL.BAL bottomed out at 35%.

65%
Peak WP
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3
GNB33
at
MIN10

MIN peaked at 64% win probability, lost 33–10 to GNB.GNB bottomed out at 36%.

64%
Peak WP
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4
NOR23
at
TAM13

TAM peaked at 58% win probability, lost 23–13 to NOR.NOR bottomed out at 42%.

58%
Peak WP
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5
CAR0
at
JAX26

CAR peaked at 54% win probability, lost 26–0 to JAX.JAX bottomed out at 46%.

54%
Peak WP
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6
LVR20
at
IND23

LVR peaked at 48% win probability, lost 23–20 to IND.IND bottomed out at 52%.

48%
Peak WP
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7
LAC9
at
DEN16

LAC peaked at 46% win probability, lost 16–9 to DEN.DEN bottomed out at 54%.

46%
Peak WP
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Heartbreak magnitude = the losing team's peak WP in the game. A 90%-peak loss is a bigger collapse than a 60%-peak loss. The same number reads as the winning team's comeback magnitude (their lowest WP was 1 − loser peak).

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